Let's assume, for a moment, that the election machinery of our democracy works as it has for almost 250 years.
This means that votes will be cast, they will be counted, and whoever reaches 270 electoral votes will be the US President starting on January 20th, 2021.
What should you know?
The Basics
In 2016, 10 States were decided by 5% or less of the vote
Based on polling, 3-4 more States are within this margin in 2020
This makes for 13-14 possible '2020 swing states"
Both candidates have paths to winning
It'll be Close, and People will be Upset
Whatever happens, there will be a large portion of the US that didn't get the person they wanted elected.
This is how our democracy works, and has always worked.
It's the role of those elected to then do their best to represent the interests of all their constituents. Even though this doesn't happen perfectly, the United States still stands out as a model where this has worked very well.
There will be a transition, someday soon, to a more personalized system of representation, as we already do with technologies and specialized / personalized commercial products. We aren't there yet, but perhaps we are edging closer.
Regardless of which side you end up on, it's important to remember that everyone is very much like you, and is simply working toward their best interests as best they understand it and know how.
We already collaborate well in our lives with almost everyone... our differences don't stop us from: working with, living near, driving next to, shopping with, drinking with, ordering food from, cheering for our local sports teams with, or generally living well with these other people.
They aren't your enemies... and even if mistaken on an issue (or several), they mean well.
It's worth remembering that.
But 2016...
The current polling shows Biden with a lead in a some areas.
The automatic response is "But what about 2016... the polls were wrong!"
Not really... the polls were, in general, only slightly off.
But... this is a good example of how slight changes can have dramatic impacts. There are a lot of summaries, but here's a good review.
So what did happen?
The final results:
If we look state by state, many were close.
This electoral map shows those states / EVs decided by 5% or less of the vote in 2016:
The number of states meeting this competitiveness criteria expanded significantly. There were:
4 in 2012 (75 EVs)
10 in 2016 and 2 partials (133 EVs)
They are:
For Democrats, those won with less than 5% were (29 EVs):
Colorado (9 EVs)
Nevada (6 EVs)
Minnesota (10 EVs)
New Hampshire (4 EVs)
For Republicans, those won with less than 5% were (26 EVs):
North Carolina (15 Evs)
Arizona (11 Evs)
... and less than 1.2% (75 EVs... for a combined 101 EVs):
Florida (29 EVs)
Pennsylvania (20 EVs)
Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Michigan (16 EVs)
Trump won the Electoral College 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), to 232 (by 74 EVs)
Had just these last 4 states decided by less than 1.2% been reversed, Clinton would have won the 75 EVs and the Presidency by equal margins.
Had Florida and just 1 of these states had less than a 1.2% shift, Clinton would have won.... It was that close.
There were 2 other states that allocate partial EVs, that each also had 1 EV decided by less than 5%, bringing the total to 133 EVs decided by 5% or less in 2016.
So.... with an eye on 2016... and these 10+ states... what OTHER states and EVs do current polls suggest may be up in the air for 2020?
Besides these 10... there are at least 3 other states that could be in play (for 40 EVs):
Georgia (16 EVs)
Ohio (18 EVs)
Iowa (6 EVs)
Combine these 40 EVs from 2020 to the 133 EVs in 2016, and what's up for grabs are:
Up to 13 States
Up to 173 EVs
Combining the "Up for Grabs" from 2016 and 2020, the map looks like this:
So... this is the best place to start if you want to understand the primary areas of uncertainty, while taking both 2016 and 2020 numbers into account.
What might this turn into in terms of final results?
Best Case for Trump
The best case scenario for Trump would be winning the core Red states AND all the edge states, that were up in the air in both 2016 and 2020.
That would look like this:
It would mean:
Winning 29 more EVs than 2016
Winning 4 more States than 2016 (Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Minnesota)
This is a real option.
Colorado would be the hardest place to win, but just a 5% swing in voter turnout OR polling could result in this outcome.
Best Case for Biden
The reverse is also true for Biden.
Polls can be wrong, and voters can be fickle... as 2016 clearly demonstrates.
But, Biden's path is a little more straight forward, and included 1 extra state wrinkle... Texas.
Now, let's imagine that, instead of Trump, Biden wins all 13 "Up for Grabs" states, BUT also outperforms polls in Texas as well (38 EVs), which is the ONLY additional state in 2020 that polls as 'close'.
That would lead up to Biden's best case, which looks like this:
This would be better than Obama or Bill Clinton.
As you can see... there's a wide degree of variation.
Likely Outcome if Polls Hold
But, what do the polls today show?
If Polls hold... and reflect actual voting, what would that looks like?
Current Polling has
Biden with 290 likely EVs
Trump with 163
85 Undecided
That would looks like this, and Biden winning, regardless of what happens with the 5 edge States and 84 EVs
Again, there are a ton of scenarios that could have it go either way... arguably, fewer for Trump.
You can read more about those here.
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